The oil markets have interpreted the most recent development in the battle between Baghdad and Erbil rather dramatically. Just when it appeared that the new Iraqi government was easing up on the Kurds over their unilateral oil exports, an international arbitration ruling disrupted developments, leading to the shutdown of the pipeline that transports Iraqi Kurdish oil to Turkey.
The oil market response to this loss of 450,000 bpd–from a purely barrels perspective–appears to have been overblown. Normally, 400,000 bpd–only a fraction…Explaining The Kurdistan Oil Outage
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